Please select your country
You acknowledge and agree that access to this Site is provided only in accordance with these Terms & Conditions.
The Site has been approved for issue in the UK by AHR Financial Planning Limited trading as AHR. AHR Financial Planning is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (“FCA”), and is entered on the Financial Services Register with the firm reference number 208467.
AHR Financial Planning is part of a global group of businesses known asThe AHR Group. AHR Financial Planning Limited is registered in England and is established at 56, Wentworth Road, Blacker Hill, Barnsley, United Kingdom, S74 0RP, which is its registered office.
Unless otherwise stated in relevant sections of the website, this website is targeted at investors who are generally classified as qualified, professional, accredited or institutional. The information contained in this website is directed only at persons in a country or jurisdiction where access to the information and the use thereof is not contrary to local law or regulation. It is your responsibility to be aware of and to observe all applicable laws and regulations of any relevant jurisdiction when accessing the information contained in this website. In particular, no offer or invitation is made to any US persons (being residents of the United States of America or partnerships or corporations organised under the laws of the United States of America or any state, territory or possession thereof), who are excluded from the services, funds and products included in this site. There will be no public offering of services, funds and products in the United States.
The services, funds and products will not generally be available to U.S. Persons.
Should you wish to contact us please refer to the Contact Us link which can be found on each page of the Site.
In these Terms
- ‘Content’ means all pages, screens, information and materials included in or accessible through this Site (including any content available on any email or SMS services).
- ‘you’, ‘your’ and ‘yours’ means you, the person(s) accessing this Site and the party on whose behalf you are doing so.
- ‘we’, ‘us’ and ‘our’ means HR Capital Partners Limited.
- ‘HR / HR Group’ means HR Investments Limited, its subsidiaries and associated companies from time to time.
These Terms cover your use of this Site. All products and services provided by members of the AHR Group have their own terms and conditions (the ‘Product Terms’). You must read both the Product Terms and these Terms. To the extent that the Product Terms conflict with these Terms or any Local Sites’ terms and conditions then the Product Terms will prevail.
We are required by law to tell you that the terms and conditions are in English and that we will communicate with you in English.
From this Site we may provide information or hyperlinks to other websites or pages provided by other entities within the AHR Group (‘Local Sites’) and other parties. Your use of Local Sites and other parties’ sites may be subject to their own terms and conditions. You should read them.
This Site is intended for those who access it from within the United Kingdom. Because of this we cannot guarantee that the Site, or the information thereon, complies with the local laws or regulations of, or is appropriate for use in, any other jurisdiction from which you access it. If you choose to access this Site from a jurisdiction other than the United Kingdom you do so at your own risk and the AHR Group will not be liable for any breach of local law or regulation that you commit as a result of doing so.
Please make sure you read carefully all applicable terms, conditions and disclaimers relevant to your use of the products, services or information that may be offered to you from time to time.
If any part of these Terms is found by any court or other competent authority to be invalid, unlawful or unenforceable then such part shall be severed from the rest of the Terms which shall continue to be valid and enforceable to the fullest extent permitted by law.
Changes to our Terms
You acknowledge that we may amend these Terms from time to time, at our sole discretion. If we elect to amend these Terms, the revised version will be posted on the Site. You undertake to check the Site regularly for any changes we may have made since your last visit to the Site, since any such changes will be binding on you. By using the Site after we have changed or amended these Terms, you acknowledge that you will be accepting those changes or amendments.
These Terms & Conditions were last updated on 6th February 2019.
Availability of site, products and services
The Content, including layout, of this Site or products or services available via this Site may be wholly or partially suspended, withdrawn or changed at any time.
We also reserve the right at any time to immediately suspend the provision of all or any part of this Site to you and/or block your access to this Site.
The provision of financial services or products
Not all the products and services that you may be able to view via the Site are available in all geographical locations. The relevant AHR Group member reserves the right to make the final determination on whether or not you are eligible for any particular product or service.
If you choose to enter a website outside your country of residence, you are advised that it may not be legal in that jurisdiction for you to access or use the facilities available on that site and the legal requirements of that jurisdiction may prohibit you from dealing or otherwise transacting in that jurisdiction. No member of the AHR Group will be liable for any breach of local law or regulation that you may commit as a result of using and accessing a website in a country in which you are not resident.
Please be aware that some of the products and services listed within the Site and those provided by any other AHR Group members or third parties that may be accessed via a link from this Site may not be suitable for all investors. Always read the product information fully before committing to any contractual agreement.
All products or services provided to you by us or any other AHR Group member shall only be available in the jurisdiction/s within which the member providing the product or service is authorised to operate.
You agree that any of the products or services provided to you by us or any other HR Group member shall be deemed to be provided in the jurisdiction within which the member providing the product or service is authorised to operate.
Information or opinions contained on this Site or in any Local Sites do not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation, or offer to buy, any securities or financial instruments or investment advice or any advice or recommendation in respect of such securities or other financial instruments.
Should you seek to rely in any way whatsoever upon any Content contained on this Site, you do so at your own risk.
Before you make any decision or take any action that might affect you or your personal finances or business, you should always consult a suitably qualified professional adviser(s) to obtain appropriate financial, legal, accounting, tax and other advice.
Other than the warranties and representations contained in these Terms, all other warranties and representations, whether express, implied or statutory are, to the fullest extent permitted by the law, excluded. We do not exclude or restrict our liabilities or duties to you where or to the extent that this is prohibited by law or regulation. Use of this Site is at your sole risk.
We do not represent that:
- any information contained on this Site will be accurate, complete or up to date or meet your specific requirements,
- this Site will be available,
- access to this Site will be uninterrupted or that there will be no delays, failures, errors or omissions or loss of information as this Site is transmitted to you,
- no viruses or other contaminating or destructive materials or elements will be transmitted or that your computer system will not be damaged.
We do not provide any guarantee about the accuracy, functionality or performance of any third party software, Content or equipment used in connection with this Site.
Exclusion of our liability
To the extent permitted by law, neither we nor any member of the AHR Group shall be liable for any damage, loss or liability (whether arising in contract, tort, including negligence, or otherwise) arising out of or in connection with:
- your use of this Site,
- your reliance on or your inability to use the information, products or services on this Site, or
- Any failure or performance, error, omission, interruption, defect, delay in operation or transmission, computer virus or line or system failure to this Site or your use or attempted use of it.
The above exclusions apply to any damage which is direct, indirect, special, incidental or consequential or consists of loss of profits, business, opportunity or data.
All of the above exclusions apply even if you have advised us or any other member of the AHR Group of the possibility of the above types of damage, loss or liability.
Password and security
In order to use the Site or one or more parts of it, you may be required to become a registered user. In order to become a registered user we will issue you with one or more of the following, namely, registered username, password other security identifier (‘Password’) in accordance with our procedures in place from time to time.
You will keep your Password secret and confidential at all times. Your Password will allow you to access your personal and confidential account and/or financial information.
You must tell us immediately of any unauthorised access to the Site using your Password or any unauthorised transaction or instruction which you know of or suspect of if you suspect someone else knows your Password. We will need you to help us and any law enforcement agency in trying to recover any losses. We may disclose information about you or your account to a law enforcement agency or other third parties if we think it will help prevent or recover losses.
You are wholly responsible for use of the Site by any person using your Password.
We reserve the right to suspend access to the Site in the event that we suspect that an unauthorised person is attempting to access the Site using your Password.
Security – it is your sole responsibility adequately to:
- protect and back up your data and equipment,
- undertake reasonable and appropriate precautions against any computer virus or other destructive materials or elements, and
- ensure that your computers and your access to this Site are adequately secured against any unauthorised users.
Your use of this Site – you may not use this Site or permit others to use this Site:
- in any way (including via electronic means) and for any purpose which is unlawful, defamatory or libelous, offensive, abusive, indecent, menacing or threatening or in any way that infringes any intellectual property rights or breaches any obligations of confidence, or
- to cause annoyance, inconvenience or needless anxiety to any other person or in any other way which is in violation of any applicable law or regulation in any jurisdiction in the world, or
- to introduce a virus or other disruptive material or element or otherwise disrupt or impair this Site or any communication service.
You undertake to comply with any terms notified to you as required from time to time by any third party supplier of data or services to this Site, including but not limited to, where necessary, entering into a direct agreement with such third party in respect of your use of their data.
Third party site and endorsement
- Links to Third Party Sites – where we provide hypertext links to other locations on the Internet, we do so for information purposes only. We are not responsible for the content of any websites or pages of third parties linked to or from this Site. Following links to any websites or pages of third parties shall be at your own risk. We shall not be responsible or liable for any damages or in any other way in connection with such linking of those websites or pages.
- Downloads from Third Party Sites – links to third party downloadable software sites are for convenience only and we are not responsible nor are we liable for any difficulties or consequences associated with downloading that software. You are responsible for obtaining all necessary authorisations to use such software and we give no implied licence or warranty in relation to the obtaining of or use of such software whatsoever.
- No Endorsement of Third Parties – no endorsement, approval or responsibility for appropriateness of any third parties or their advice, opinions, information, products or services is expressed or implied by any hyperlinks to or from any third party websites or pages.
Links to our site
Neither you nor any other party may use any part of this Site on any other website, or link any other website to this Site, without our prior written permission.
We are not responsible for the set-up of any link from a third party website to our Site.
Neither you nor any other party may deep link to, frame, spider, harvest or scrape the Content or otherwise access the Content for any purposes, or use any machine, electronic, web based or similar device to read or extract the Content by machine based or automated means, without our prior written permission.
Intellectual property rights
- Our Rights – all intellectual property rights (including, without limitation, copyright, database rights, design rights, patents and trademarks) in the Content are owned by or licensed to us unless otherwise stated.
- HR – HR and the HR logo are trademarks of HR Investments Limited and all rights and benefits in them vest in HR Investments Limited.
- Copying by you and your access to the Site – you may print, copy, download or temporarily store extracts from this Site for your personal use or to help you use our products and services. You must not alter any extract contained on or obtained from this Site in any form. Any other use is prohibited unless you first get our written permission. Without limiting the above, unless you first get our written consent, you may not reproduce, modify, adapt, transmit, publish, broadcast, create derivative works of, store, archive or in any way exploit any of the Content. Without limitation, neither you nor any other party may do any of the following without prior written consent from us:
- create any data base in electronic or structured manual form by systematically downloading and storing all or any of the Content; or
- redistribute any of the Content (including by using it as part of any syndication, content aggregation, archive or similar service); or
- remove the copyright or trademark notice from any copies of Content made in accordance with these Terms.
Internet and e-mail communications
Messages sent over the Internet (including e-mail) cannot be guaranteed to be completely secure as they are subject to possible interception, monitoring, delay, loss or alteration.
Neither we nor any other member of the AHR Group are responsible for any such messages nor liable to you or anyone else for any damages or otherwise in connection with any messages sent by you to us or any other party or any messages sent or appearing to be sent by us or any third party to you over the Internet (including e-mail). You should not include any sensitive or confidential information in such messages.
Our monitoring of communication
To help us improve our service and in the interest of security, we may monitor and/or record communications (whether over the Internet, telephone or otherwise) between you and us. All recordings are our sole property.
Data protection and Privacy
These Terms are governed by and are to be interpreted in accordance with the laws of UK.
The courts in England and Wales will have non-exclusive jurisdiction in respect of any dispute which may arise in connection with the Terms or your use of this Site.
Weekly Market Update Monday 9th January 2023
The new year starts where it left off – inflation, inflation, inflation
Markets have picked up in the new year from where they left off last year, looking for evidence of a slowdown in economic activity, and therefore inflationary pressures. Investors are trying to judge when the tightening monetary policy cycle will come to an end, and the likelihood and depth of any impending recession. Headline inflation data (including food and energy) released by Germany, France and Spain, has come in weaker than forecast for December and lower than the prior month, helping to spur an early rally in European equity markets. Whilst US equities have had a harder start to the year, as despite leading indicators pointing towards a slowdown, the jobs market remains tight, and markets continue to worry about the effects of wage pressures on the inflationary outlook. Later today, the latest employment data in the form of the non-farm payrolls will be released, however, earlier this week, the ADP private payrolls came in stronger than forecast and higher than the figure for November, with 235,000 new jobs having been created.
Against this backdrop, as of 12pm on Friday, European equities rose 3.6% over the week, with the UK market climbing by 2.7%. Whilst the US market fell 0.8% and the US technology sector dropped 1.5%. Both onshore and offshore Chinese stocks have started the year on a strong footing, benefitting from an easing in Covid restrictions, despite an explosion in the spread of the virus. Chinese ‘A’ shares rose by 2.2%, whilst offshore Hong Kong stocks are up 6.1%. This has helped to propel emerging markets up by 2.9%. However, this hides a wide dispersion in returns in the emerging world, with Latin America down by 1.0%, suffering from falling oil prices. Australian equities rose by 1.0%, whilst Japanese stocks fell by 0.8% following the Bank of Japan relaxing its zero-yield policy control before Christmas. Yields on 10-year government bonds can now trade in a range of plus or minus 0.5% around zero, versus the previous range of plus or minus 0.25%.
Government bonds strengthened
Government bonds strengthened in price, as the continued strength in the US labour market raised concerns that US interest rates will continue to rise, increasing the risk of a recession. 10-year US Treasury yields, which move inversely to price, fell to 3.72%, whilst shorter-dated 2-year yields, which are more sensitive to interest rates, rose to 4.47%. 10-year German bund and UK gilt yields fell to 2.29% and 3.56% respectively.
Gold rose by 0.8% over the week to trade at $1,840 an ounce, having risen close to 12% since its lowest point in 2022, recorded in November. Copper was little changed over the week, trading at $8,361 a tonne, whilst iron ore continued its recent recovery, rising by 1.5%, benefitting from the relaxation of Covid controls in China. Crude oil traded down, with Brent crude falling almost 9% over the week, now priced at $78.5 a barrel. European natural gas rose by 2% over the week but has fallen to levels last seen in 2021. On the back of a warm winter, prices have fallen by over 50% since the highest level for December, and by over 70% since its peak reached in August of last year. It is a similar story in the US despite prices never having reached the stratospheric levels witnessed in Europe. US Henry Hub gas prices have declined by over 45% since the peak for December, and over 60% since the highs of August.
Issues under discussion
No imminent let-up in future tightening
The dominant narrative of 2022 continues into the new year: inflation, the response from central banks, and the probability and depth of a recession.
Headline inflation, that is, including food and energy, looks to have peaked, with recent inflation prints coming down faster than estimates. However, core inflation, excluding food and energy, remains stubbornly high. The US Federal Reserve has moderated its rate increases, although comments from the chair, Jerome Powell, and minutes released from the last meeting suggest no imminent let up in future tightening whilst inflation remains significantly above its target of 2%.
Monetary policy acts with a lag of somewhere between twelve to eighteen months, therefore the danger is that the Fed over-interprets the need to continue tightening, leading to a sharper downturn than required some time in 2023.
The flip side of this, is that some investors look to history and suggest that when periods of inflation have come about before it has taken much longer periods of tightening to tame it. Therefore, bond yields have further to rise from today’s levels before inflation is brought under control.
The truth is, there is very little consensus on what the root causes of inflation are, and therefore similarly, the remedies.
© Copyright 2023 AHR. All Rights Reserved.